The Power Paradox: Why Raw Watts Don’t Tell the Whole Story in Cycling
Cycling is a sport obsessed with numbers. Watts, weight, and watts per kilogram (w/kg) dominate conversations, especially when it comes to Functional Threshold Power (FTP). But here’s the thing: while FTP is a useful metric, it’s only one piece of a much larger puzzle. Personally, I think the cycling world often gets lost in the numbers, forgetting that races aren’t won on spreadsheets—they’re won on roads, cobblestones, and mountain passes. Let’s dive into why raw power, while impressive, doesn’t always translate to victory.
The Pogačar Enigma: When Power Meets Efficiency
Tadej Pogačar is the poster child for FTP dominance. With an estimated FTP of 450 watts at around 65 kg, his w/kg ratio is off the charts—around 6.9 w/kg. What makes this particularly fascinating is how he leverages this power. Pogačar isn’t just strong; he’s efficient. His climbing performances, like the record-breaking ascent of Alpe d’Huez, aren’t just about raw watts—they’re about sustained effort, tactical brilliance, and mental fortitude.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Pogačar’s power isn’t just a strength; it’s also a weakness. On flatter terrain, his raw power advantage diminishes. Riders like Mathieu van der Poel, who can push similar wattage but weigh significantly more, can match him on the flats. What this really suggests is that power is context-dependent. Pogačar’s dominance is undeniable in the mountains, but on cobblestones or in time trials, the game changes.
Vingegaard’s Dilemma: The Pursuit of Balance
Jonas Vingegaard, Pogačar’s arch-rival, has an FTP of around 410 watts at 60 kg, giving him a w/kg ratio of 6.8. On paper, he’s almost as strong as Pogačar. But in my opinion, Vingegaard’s challenge isn’t just about closing the wattage gap—it’s about finding balance. His lighter frame gives him an edge on steep climbs, but it also means he’s at a disadvantage on flatter terrain.
One thing that immediately stands out is Vingegaard’s deliberate weight gain in 2026. This move, aimed at boosting his raw power, highlights a broader trend in cycling: the pursuit of optimization. But what many people don’t realize is that adding muscle can compromise agility and recovery. Vingegaard’s strategy is a gamble, and it raises a deeper question: How much can a rider tweak their physiology before it backfires?
Evenepoel’s Secret Weapon: Aerodynamics Over Watts
Remco Evenepoel’s FTP of 425 watts at 63 kg might seem underwhelming compared to Pogačar and Vingegaard. But here’s the kicker: Evenepoel isn’t just a climber; he’s a time trial specialist. His aerodynamic efficiency allows him to outperform riders with higher wattage on flat courses. If you take a step back and think about it, this is a game-changer. It’s not always about pushing more watts—it’s about how you use them.
What makes Evenepoel’s approach so intriguing is its psychological dimension. He knows he can’t match Pogačar’s climbing power, so he plays to his strengths. This strategic mindset is something I find especially interesting. It’s a reminder that cycling isn’t just a physical battle; it’s a mental one too.
The Flat Classics: Where Raw Power Reigns
On the cobblestones of Flanders and Roubaix, raw power takes center stage. Riders like Mathieu van der Poel, with an FTP north of 470 watts, thrive in these conditions. Van der Poel’s ability to sustain high wattage over rough terrain is unparalleled. But what’s often overlooked is the psychological toll of these races. The cobblestones are brutal, and mental resilience is just as important as physical strength.
A detail that I find especially interesting is how aerodynamics become less relevant on cobblestones. Riders can’t maintain an ‘aero bullet’ position, so it’s all about raw power and bike handling. This levels the playing field in a way that’s unique to these races.
The Next Generation: Del Toro and Seixas
Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas are the future of cycling. At 22 and 19, respectively, their FTPs are already impressive—around 410 watts. But what’s truly remarkable is their rate of improvement. These riders aren’t just strong; they’re evolving. In my opinion, their potential is limitless.
What this really suggests is that the cycling world is on the cusp of a new era. As Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel reach their physical peaks, the next generation is closing in fast. It’s a reminder that cycling is a sport of constant evolution, where today’s underdogs can become tomorrow’s champions.
The Bigger Picture: Beyond the Numbers
If there’s one takeaway from all this, it’s that cycling is more than just watts and w/kg. It’s about strategy, psychology, and adaptability. Raw power is important, but it’s not the only factor. Personally, I think the most successful riders are the ones who understand this balance.
As we look to the future, I’m excited to see how riders like Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel continue to push the boundaries. But I’m equally intrigued by the rise of del Toro and Seixas. Cycling is a sport of contrasts—power versus efficiency, experience versus potential—and that’s what makes it so captivating.
So, the next time you compare your FTP to the pros, remember: it’s not just about the numbers. It’s about how you use them. And in cycling, that’s where the real magic happens.
